Papua New Guinea

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Systemic vulnerability profile

Methodology BandSets-v1 · 50 components across 5 layers · scored 2026-10-24 · 1 score change in 30 days

Confidence medium · 45 of 50 components scored (5 n/a — no evidence in the graph) · 102 of 133 evidence items cited

Systemic Vulnerability Index

6.8 / 10

Elevated

Resources

7.4

raw 6.5 × 1.15 · medium

10 of 10 components scored

Preservation

6.8

raw 6.4 × 1.05 · medium

9 of 10 components scored · 1 n/a

Intelligence

7.1

raw 6.5 × 1.1 · medium

9 of 10 components scored · 1 n/a

Identity

7.1

raw 6.2 × 1.15 · medium

9 of 10 components scored · 1 n/a

Game

5.6

raw 5.1 × 1.1 · medium

8 of 10 components scored · 2 n/a

Component detail

Analyst plan and above

50 scored components are held behind the Analyst plan.

Each carries its five sub-dimension scores (exposure, fragility, criticality, recovery, threat pressure), an analytical justification and its evidence references. The layer scores and the index above are open.

Resources

  • Primary export / revenue concentration (niche capture)
  • Energy supply chain — fuel and power imports
  • Food and water security
  • Critical materials and industrial inputs
  • Trade route and logistics chokepoints
  • Financial system core — banking and payments
  • Capital market access and external financing
  • Currency stability and reserves position
  • Fiscal sustainability — debt and deficit structure
  • Labour and talent supply

Preservation

  • Conventional military deterrence
  • National cyber defence and incident response
  • Offensive cyber capability
  • Critical infrastructure protection (OT/ICS)
  • Institutional and legal moat — rule of law
  • Regulatory moat — financial and sectoral
  • Alliance and security-guarantee moat
  • Counterintelligence and insider-threat program
  • Supply-chain security program
  • Border and physical security

Intelligence

  • Strategic intelligence collection capability
  • Cyber threat detection and monitoring
  • Government digital core systems (identity, registries)
  • Data infrastructure and data sovereignty
  • Decision-making structure and speed
  • Crisis command and control
  • Information integrity and counter-disinformation
  • Telecommunications and routing architecture
  • Public information channels and media ecosystem
  • Statistical and economic sensing capability

Identity

  • National purpose and founding-narrative coherence
  • Value-system consensus
  • Ethnic, sectarian, or regional cohesion
  • Elite–mass cohesion
  • Generational cohesion
  • Governing legitimacy — performance
  • Governing legitimacy — ideological and procedural
  • Civic morale and resilience narrative
  • Institutional trust
  • Constitutive territory integrity

Game

  • Alliance portfolio strength and reliability
  • Diplomatic reach and manoeuvring room
  • International reputation — governance
  • International reputation — sector-specific
  • Neutrality / alignment position
  • External reconnaissance and intelligence reach
  • External operations capability and exposure
  • Sphere of influence / operational territory
  • Multilateral institutional position
  • Diaspora and soft-power network
See plansTalk to us

Scores are analytical estimates produced from open-source and graph evidence, not audited financial or security assessments. Interpretation is judgement, not measurement — verify against the underlying sources before acting on it. Methodology

What changed

Every score movement, with its cause. Positive = more systemically vulnerable. Written by the engine's ledger; nothing here is edited by hand.

  1. 2026-10-24 06:13 UTCScheduled re-score

    SVI 6.87 → 6.79-0.08

    • Preservation layer6.94 → 6.77-0.17
    • Game layer5.31 → 5.58+0.27
    • Intelligence layer7.16 → 7.10-0.06
    • Identity layer7.37 → 7.07-0.30
    • Resources layer7.58 → 7.41-0.17

    Component-level movements and rationale are part of the Analyst tier. See plans →

  2. 2026-09-19 23:49 UTCScheduled re-score

    SVI 6.89 → 6.87-0.02

    • Game layer5.63 → 5.31-0.32
    • Intelligence layer7.07 → 7.16+0.09
    • Identity layer7.21 → 7.37+0.16
    • Resources layer7.71 → 7.58-0.13
    • Preservation layer6.83 → 6.94+0.11

    Component-level movements and rationale are part of the Analyst tier. See plans →

Scenario — cascade simulation

What a shock to Papua New Guinea would propagate to, through the relationship graph (ownership, control, dependence, supply, flows, location, alliances). A model of structure, not a forecast.

Cascade scenarios are part of the Analyst tier.

See plans →

Disclaimer: this is a structural propagation model over the public relationship graph with analyst-set transmission coefficients per relationship type (decay 0.85 per hop). It is not a prediction, not a stress test, and not financial or security advice. Modelled SVI values are illustrative and never written to the ledger. Coverage is limited to relationships recorded in the graph; absence of an entity here means no recorded link, not no exposure.

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Answers are grounded only in Papua New Guinea's scored data. Every figure used is cited with its source, date and confidence. Where the data cannot answer, it says so.

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