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Systemic vulnerability profile
Methodology BandSets-v1 · 50 components across 5 layers · scored 2026-10-26 · 1 score change in 30 days
Confidence high · 48 of 50 components scored (2 n/a — no evidence in the graph) · 138 of 165 evidence items cited
Systemic Vulnerability Index
7.7 / 10
High vulnerability
Resources
8.4
raw 7.3 × 1.15 · high
10 of 10 components scored
Preservation
7.8
raw 7.4 × 1.05 · high
10 of 10 components scored
Intelligence
7.4
raw 6.7 × 1.1 · medium
10 of 10 components scored
Identity
8
raw 6.9 × 1.15 · medium
9 of 10 components scored · 1 n/a
Game
7
raw 6.4 × 1.1 · high
9 of 10 components scored · 1 n/a
50 scored components are held behind the Analyst plan.
Each carries its five sub-dimension scores (exposure, fragility, criticality, recovery, threat pressure), an analytical justification and its evidence references. The layer scores and the index above are open.
Resources
Scores are analytical estimates produced from open-source and graph evidence, not audited financial or security assessments. Interpretation is judgement, not measurement — verify against the underlying sources before acting on it. Methodology
What changed
Every score movement, with its cause. Positive = more systemically vulnerable. Written by the engine's ledger; nothing here is edited by hand.
SVI 7.92 → 7.73-0.19
Component-level movements and rationale are part of the Analyst tier. See plans →
Scenario — cascade simulation
What a shock to Ukraine would propagate to, through the relationship graph (ownership, control, dependence, supply, flows, location, alliances). A model of structure, not a forecast.
Cascade scenarios are part of the Analyst tier.
See plans →Disclaimer: this is a structural propagation model over the public relationship graph with analyst-set transmission coefficients per relationship type (decay 0.85 per hop). It is not a prediction, not a stress test, and not financial or security advice. Modelled SVI values are illustrative and never written to the ledger. Coverage is limited to relationships recorded in the graph; absence of an entity here means no recorded link, not no exposure.
10 Resources & energy metrics — values open with any Intel Map plan
Deposits, extraction, generation facilities
15 Economy — primary/secondary metrics — values open with any Intel Map plan
Sector dominance by region
1 Economy — tertiary metric — values open with any Intel Map plan
Services and high-value sectors
9 Financial infrastructure metrics — values open with any Intel Map plan
Exchanges, banks, corridors
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Preservation
Intelligence
Identity
Game
SVI 7.33 → 7.92+0.59
Component-level movements and rationale are part of the Analyst tier. See plans →
SVI 7.32 → 7.33+0.01
Cause · conflict · severity 10.0 · 2026-09-13
GDELT media signal: 27 conflict events involving UKR in the 15-min window ending 2026-09-13T15:00:00Z (mean Goldstein -10.0). Reported coverage, not verified ground truth.
sample coverage: londonlovesbusiness.com · londonlovesbusiness.com · londonlovesbusiness.com
Component-level movements and rationale are part of the Analyst tier. See plans →
SVI unchanged (below 0.01)
Cause · conflict · severity 9.9 · 2026-09-14
GDELT media signal: 34 conflict events involving UKR in the 15-min window ending 2026-09-14T00:00:00Z (mean Goldstein -9.9). Reported coverage, not verified ground truth.
sample coverage: mesabitribune.com · lbc.co.uk · gdnonline.com
Component-level movements and rationale are part of the Analyst tier. See plans →
SVI 7.31 → 7.32+0.01
Cause · conflict · severity 9.9 · 2026-09-13
GDELT media signal: 27 conflict events involving UKR in the 15-min window ending 2026-09-13T12:45:00Z (mean Goldstein -9.9). Reported coverage, not verified ground truth.
sample coverage: winnipegfreepress.com · thegazette.com · arkansasonline.com
Component-level movements and rationale are part of the Analyst tier. See plans →
Answers are grounded only in Ukraine's scored data. Every figure used is cited with its source, date and confidence. Where the data cannot answer, it says so.
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